April 7, 2025

WASHINGTON, D.C. — The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday that employers added 228,000 jobs in March, showing strength in the labor market prior to the current economic uncertainties caused by last week’s tariff announcements. This marks an increase from February’s revised total of 117,000. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%, while wage growth slowed to 3.8% over the past year, the lowest rate since July 2024.

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Hiring gains were concentrated in health care, social assistance, and transportation and warehousing. Retail jobs also rose by 24,000, including an estimated 21,000 in food and beverage stores as union grocery workers returned from a strike that ended earlier in the month.  

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In contrast, federal government employment declined by 4,000 jobs, continuing a downward trend from February’s 11,000 jobs. However, with federal job cut announcements totaling over 216,000 in March alone, this reported decline may not yet reflect the full scope of planned reductions. Many of these separations involve early retirements and buyouts, meaning the effects may become clearer in next month’s report.

“March’s numbers show the job market remained strong, but these are backward looking indicators, and the story underneath is more complicated,” said Marisa Calderon, President and CEO of Prosperity Now. “We're seeing signals that broader changes in the economy, such as trade policy shifts and federal workforce reductions, will likely affect hiring patterns across the country moving forward. It’s important to pay attention to what’s coming next.”

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Some of these changes are already being felt. The administration’s recent expansion of tariffs on imports, particularly from China, is expected to increase operating costs for many small businesses, especially small firms with tighter margins. These added costs could limit the ability of small businesses to hire or retain workers in the coming months.  

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Meanwhile, state and local governments are stepping in to offset federal job losses. Governors in states such as Maryland and New York have launched hiring campaigns aimed at bringing experienced federal employees into state service. These efforts can provide some relief, but they may not be able to match the breadth, pay scale, or career trajectories of federal employment. And while they may help stabilize the public sector, they do little to protect small businesses or hourly workers whose jobs depend on consistent consumer demand.

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There are also signs that households are preparing for a more uncertain financial future. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell by 7.2 points in March to 92.9, its fourth consecutive monthly decline and the lowest since July 2022. Confidence in future job availability fell to a 12-month low, and fewer consumers expect their incomes to rise in the near term.  

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“When confidence falls this steadily, it suggests that people are feeling the strain of rising costs and uncertainty,” Calderon said. “Families are watching their budgets more closely, and small shifts in prices or hours worked can have real consequences for their financial stability.”

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Prosperity Now continues to support approaches that help individuals and communities navigate economic change. Whether that means strengthening hiring pipelines across sectors or ensuring small business owners have the tools to retain workers, our focus remains on helping people find steady footing in a shifting economy.  

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